BREATHE AND STOP

It's really fascinating how quickly political storylines can change in the blink of a day (or less!) Most of the Obama-backers I know are now in full panic mode - no doubt preconditioned by watching the Democratic implosions of 2000 and 2004 and their pessimism that this is all going to play out the same way again.

Collectively, I think the nation needs a deep breath. Retune. Refocus.

With this year's election though, my friend Hua suggested there's two things going on, emotionally - many people are so caught up with their candidates that they can't bear the idea of Obama losing. Then there's the side that simply can't bear the idea of having the GOP in power another four years, especially after the disaster they've created the last eight. Personally, I can feel both sides. I've always had an easier time rooting for underdogs - no doubt conditioned by years of frustration following Cal football and the (pre-94) Red Sox in the post-season. So when Obama was up up up in the polls, but then started to lose ground, my anxiety level began to skyrocket; no doubt, last week's flurry of posts was reflective of some of that. Yet, strangely, now that he's down in the race, I feel far less frenzied about it...possibly because I'm steeling myself for the worse, but I also think - in this current media climate - it helps to be the underdog. See the narrative around Hillary after Ohio, leading through New Hampshire, see Huckabee early in the GOP race, and now see McCain/Palin. Everyone loves the come from behind story and now it's Obama's turn (again) with the GOP ticket dominating the daily news cycle.

Some have argued that the RNC was McCain's highwater mark in this campaign and I think that may be completely true, barring some epic sonning of Obama in the debates. Once that honeymoon, post-conventional glow fades, what is he left with?

Here's the main things that continually jump out to me regarding McCain.

1) His economic plan more or less follows George Bush's. I cannot see how any middle class voter can find this appealing. Especially in this climate, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac having to be rescued and unemployment peaking over 6%, McCain should be very , very vulnerable amongst working class and middle class voters.

2) Much of the punditry is arguing that this election isn't over issues though, but over personality and character. Assuming that's true, then McCain definitely comes up incredibly short. He's one of the biggest flip-floppers I can remember in recent political history. The bills HE BACKED are now policies that he says he'd vote against. To borrow from Amy: what kind of fu**ery is this? How is he allowed to not simply retreat but actually turn on his own policies/legislation? That's not character, that's political cowardice - it's pandering, it's abandoning your integrity for the sake of shoring up a base that you, in the past, have basically stated you don't like. It's certainly not being maverick, it's being disingenuous.

Any election race surely creates compromises that candidates have to make, the McCain of 2008 is a hollow shell of the McCain of even a few years ago, let alone the McCain of 2000 that everyone seemed so taken by (myself included). .

And for the life of me, I don't understand why the Dems aren't making a bigger issue of this and hammering it home. Kerry's "Candidate McCain vs. Senator McCain" was a perfect distillation of this contradiction that could easily be translated into print and TV ads. Friends of mine think it's because McCain's character is bulletproof and a non-starter - his history as a POW means he's unassailable on this front and maybe that is the case. But to me, part of what we want from a leader is the idea that they don't pander. Compromise? Sure. Play well with others? Sure. But go back on their own legislation? Go from anti-torture to well-torture-is-ok-depending-on-the-circumstances? Go from semi-intelligent-immigration policy to mostly-hysterical-immigration-paranoia?

The fact that he has such strong support amongst the right only tells me that this whole "character" argument is really bunk. People are backing him because he's the GOP candidate - period. It has nothing to do with character because they could have put anyone up in there, and they'd still get at least 80% of the base. The other explanation is the more popular one: American voters (at least on the right side of the aisle) really are shallow and stupid. Who'd want to vote for a candidate that can't be trusted to keep their word or hold onto their ideals? Who will McCain be tomorrow?

--O.W.