60 DAYS

This comment was from the previous post but I thought it tied in nicely with some points I was going to make in a new thread anyway:

"The last 12 or so posts on this blog are a good example of why the Democrats are in trouble.

Any momentum Obama had earlier in the summer has been killed, partly due to the dead cat bounce after the naming of Biden and the DNC convention but also because of Palin's entry into the race.

The dems are expending vast amounts of time, money, and energy attacking Palin and not sticking to the positive "Obama for Change" message that was working for them earlier this year.

Meanwhile Mccain is sitting back with a $200 million warchest and preparing for the debates where he will shine as the most experienced, moderate, and presidential looking candidate. --Jay"

I don't know how NOT to use a cliche to start this off but from here on out, post conventions, it really looks to be a whole new race and I think part of what Jay is nodding at is a reflection of that. In just eight days, there's been a political climate more charged than any other time I can remember (and that includes following things like 9/11 and the start of either Gulf War 1 or 2).

That said, I think Jay makes several spurious leaps in logic, which I'll use to dovetail into some main points:

1) Dead cat bounce? (I've never heard the term before, though it's oddly compelling, I must admit). Obama did enjoy a bounce over the last week, a pretty decent one considering the Palin nomination and back-to-back DNC/RNCs. By Monday, we'll have a better sense of how much the GOP's counter-bounce (live cat?) will be. But if the argument here is that the RNC's stole all of Obama's momentum, there's no data to support that since, if it were true, Obama should have been trailing McCain over this week and that simply hasn't been the case.

I do agree however: Palin gave the GOP tremendous momentum at a time where they sorely needed it. Whether this lasts into the next two months is harder to say; the GOP's strategy was to keep Palin on the low, like Quayle in 1988 since they're not certain if more or less media attention on her will be of benefit or not. The polling data that does exist re: Palin suggests that she's big with the GOP base but isn't pulling heavy independent or Dem numbers. She needs to do both if her nomination is going to pay off as a gamble. Shoring up the GOP base, mathematically, isn't enough.

2) What "vast amounts of time, money and energy" have the Democrats expended going after Palin? I've seen vast amounts of media time, money and energy into pursuing Palin as a story (and that makes sense given that the vast majority of people knew zero about her before last Friday). The DNC, as a party, hasn't actually done much regarding her, probably partially out of caution, partially out of realizing: they don't need to when the media is doing all the work already.

The downside though is that their message isn't getting broadcast as much now because of the RNC and Palin. So it's not that the Dems have shifted course - if you really think that's true, show me where that's manifested - it's that their course is now muddled in the fog of Palin-mania.

3) "he will shine as the most experienced, moderate, and presidential looking candidate."

Let's see...Palin proves that even to the GOP, experience doesn't matter so they just gave up that argument.

Second, I'm not clear on how McCain can sell a "moderate" image given his very clear right-ward shift over the last two years, including away from his own policies. I don't know why the Dems aren't playing this up more since the flip-flop thing seemed to have helped undermine Kerry. Moreover, the appointing of such a hard right candidate like Palin doesn't help McCain look like he's reaching for the middle. I think the abortion debate may prove to be very powerful in this election and all the survey data out there suggests a strong pro-choice sentiment except in those states that are already expected to go red (and therefore, aren't going to count against Obama any more than they do already).[1]

As for Presidential-looking...that's truly in the eye of the beholder. Maybe it was the technical glitches on Thursday, maybe it's just that McCain is not a very good orator but to me, he seemed stiff and weary whereas Obama, in front of 70,000, looked very presidential. Obviously, perspectives on that will differ. However, as speakers go, even the GOP acknowledges Obama is more gifted on that front than McCain. What McCain has going for him is the war hero gravitas but as Kerry's failure shows, even that can have its limits.

There's one thing I agree with you though: if McCain wins in the fall, it will be as much a failure of the Democratic party as it will be a victory by the GOP. The Dems have it relatively easy this year - just turn out the same % of your base for Obama as they came out for Kerry and it's a wrap. There are more Democratic voters this year than in 2004, the war is still going on, the economy is tanking, blah blah blah. So the question is: why isn't this thing on lock? And I think one can point to any number of factors that have very little to do with direct GOP machinations. The first was the splitting of the Dem party by the primary fight and the lingering bad blood that - it seems - is finally dissipating with a reunification of the party (but Obama still doesn't have Kerry's % yet). The second is the hard-to-quantify-but-you-know-it's-there factor of racism and that there's going to be a % of voters who simply won't go for Obama on skin color alone, no matter what happens.

And this brings it back to the much-aligned community organizers. If they have any role to play in this election, it's to help secure the Democratic voter base through registration and getting people to go on election day. As noted, after Wed, their inventive level just went way up. It's always bad form to mock people in a position to harm you.

One last thing: Jay's right though - Palin-mania (however expected and kind of entertaining in a rooting-against-the-antagonist way) - isn't a useful strategy post-RNC. The media, no doubt, will continue to look into her history for a few more news cycles but the better Democratic strategy is to put this back on McCain and his perceived weaknesses (of which there are legion).

To wit, I give you:



[1] Culture war as election year tactics is a tricky thing though - it's not always clear if they even work (national security trumped gay marriage in 2004 and I think, this year, economic concerns will still come out as more relevant than abortion).

--O.W.